CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Sun 15 Jan 06:00 - Mon 16 Jan 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 14 Jan 18:18 (UTC)
FORECASTER: DAHL

Thunderstorms are forecast across the south-central Mediterranean Sea.

Thunderstorms are forecast across the eastern Atlantic including the WRN Gulf of Biscay ... and the western portions of the Iberian Peninsula.

SYNOPSIS

NE European blocking upper high is progged to begin weakening late in the period. Weak upper low over the central Mediterranean should remain in place ... with weak vort maximum at its periphery expected to stall over the S Ionian Sea. Atlantic long-wave trough is progged to close off into a cut-off low as it reaches the Iberian Peninsula late in the period. At low levels ... most of Europe is affected by contintnal polar air associated with large E European SFC high ... with plume of moist subtropical/Atlantic air mass reaching extreme W Europe ahead of the Atlantic longwave trough.

DISCUSSION

...SW Ionian Sea...
Sheets of shallow convective clouds should persist across much of the Mediterranean Sea ... capable of producing isolated CG's ... though warm/low EL's should limit TSTM potential. Best threat exists ahead of Ionian vort max. Though strikes should remain rather isolated with this activity as well ... will include a small TSTM area.

...E Atlantic ... WRN Gulf of Biscay ... WRN portions of the Iberian Peninsula...
Convective scenario unfolding with Atlantic system is somewhat uncertain ... it seems that subtropical/Atlantic warm-sector air mass will be rather stable and thus not supportive of deep convection ... though NMM seems to advertise weak CAPE also in this air mass. Bulk of activity should occur in the wake of the cold front beneath the thermal-trough region. However ... isolated elevated TSTMS could also occur over SW Iberia ahead of evolving cut-off low in LL WAA regime. Severe threat should be rather limited ... though especially over the NRN Biscay and S of Ireland shear should be supportive of strong outflow winds and maybe some small hail. Threat appears to be too marginal for a SLGT however.

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